CAC 20130110_Presentation_Morrison_DemographicsAnaheimAnaheim’’s Evolving s Evolving
Demographic SettingDemographic Setting
Peter A. Morrison
January 10, 2013
petermorrison@me.com-(310) 266-9580
Contact:
AgendaAgenda
How City’s demographic
Issue:
setting shapes minority voters’
potential to elect candidates of their
choice
To better understand this
Focus:
setting and how it is changing
Where Demographics MatterWhere Demographics Matter
Enables a group to use its
At-large:
overall voting strength to elect a 2
nd
highest vote-getter
Enables a group to use its
By district:
concentrated voting strength in an area
(district) to elect the single winner there
Key TakeKey Take--Away PointsAway Points
1.Certain groups are gaining electoral
strength as the City’s population matures
2.Things aren’t always what they seem:
Many adults aren’t now eligible to vote
3.Past City Council elections offer lessons
on how future ethnic candidates can get
elected
Overview of AnaheimOverview of Anaheim’’s s
PopulationPopulation
Rapid Population Growth
Residential Patterns: 2010
Demographics by Race/Ethnicity
100%
Others*
9
12
15
Black*
80%
31
Asian*
60%
47
Hispanic
53
White*
40%
57
20%
36
28
0%
1990 2000 2010
Change in Distribution of Eligible Voters
100%
Others*
12
17
Black*
80%
24
Asian*
60%
35
Hispanic
White*
40%
58
43
20%
0%
2000 2010
And What’s In Store
. . .
100%
10
Others*
17
80%
Black*
Asian*
35
60%
68
Hispanic
40%
White*
43
20%
16
0%
Eligible Voters US Born Under
Age 18
*
Non-Hispanic
The CityThe City’’s Future s Future
Eligible VotersEligible Voters
Anticipated Future Shares of Eligible Voters
100%
Others*
17
16
17
15
Black*
80%
Asian*
60%
35
37
40
42
Hispanic
White*
40%
43
20%
41
38
36
0%
2010 Nov-12 Nov-16 Nov-20
Lessons From PastLessons From Past
City Council Elections City Council Elections
City Council Election Winners: City Council Election Winners:
20022002--20122012
EthnicityNo. runningWinnersWin rate
Latino18422%
White31619%
Other13215%
??100%
Source: City of Anaheim.
November 2012 Election
Vote Percentage
JORDAN BRANDMAN 26,332 19.3%
LUCILLE KRING 25,464 18.7%
JOHN LEOS 19,051 14.0%
JENNIFER RIVERA 14,091 10.3%
STEVEN ALBERT CHAVEZ LODGE 13,834 10.1%
LINDA LINDER 13,456 9.9%
BRIAN NEIL CHUCHUA 9,534 7.0%
RODOLFO "RUDY" GAONA 7,703 5.6%
DUANE ROBERTS 6,914 5.1%
November 2010 Election
Vote Percentage
GAIL EASTMAN 20,389 19.0%
KRIS MURRAY 17,871 16.6%
JOHN LEOS 12,966 12.1%
LINDA LINDER 8,296 7.7%
ROBERT NELSON 7,176 6.7%
"HOAGY" HOLGUIN 7,165 6.7%
BILL DALATI 5,392 5.0%
BRIAN NEIL CHUCHUA 5,070 4.7%
SANDY PARKE 5,010 4.7%
ROBERT JESUS FLORES 4,886 4.5%
DUSTIN APODACA 4,176 3.9%
DENNIS T. VARNUM 3,859 3.6%
JOHN SANTOIANNI 2,982 2.8%
RUDY GAONA 2,323 2.2%
Key TakeKey Take--Away PointsAway Points
1.Certain groups are gaining electoral
strength as the City’s population matures
2.Things aren’t always what they seem:
Many adults aren’t now eligible to vote
3.Past City Council elections offer lessons
on how future ethnic candidates can get
elected
Questions?Questions?